Current vs PETM temperature change

A Scary Prediction: Catastrophic Climate Change

Today’s prediction is unfortunately a gloomy one. I predict that there will be one (or more) climate shocks that will likely accelerate the warming of the planet beyond what is already anticipated. Related to this would be a dramatic loss of biodiversity in the oceans due to the acidifying of oceans, coral bleaching and overfishing.

Our planet is/was in natural equilibrium when it came to global temperatures. Now it seems the equilibrium has been disturbed by manmade activity. The signs are that our current models are too conservative and have not sufficiently accounted for the effect of methane – a greenhouse gas 25 times worse than CO2 – being released from melting permafrost and the possibility of reaching a tipping point / feedback loop situation.

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Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks

The Wikipedia page on “global catastrophic risks” has the following definition: “A global catastrophic risk is a hypothetical future event that has the potential to damage human well-being on a global scale. Some events could cripple or destroy modern civilization. Any event that could cause human extinction is also known as an existential risk.” Another definition from the “Global Challenges Foundation” is any risk that can eliminate 10% of the population. No points for guessing what percentage of the population dies in an existential risk.

Arthur Raind is particularly concerned about four risks in 2030, two existential and two catastrophic: 1) super-intelligent AI, 2) engineered pandemics, 3) severe climate change, and 4) food scarcity (caused by ocean ecology collapse).

What do you think are the most significant risks that humankind needs to prepare for over the next 15 years?

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A Bold Prediction: (Almost) Free Energy in 20 Years

Today is the second of my “Prediction Saturday” blog posts. The intent of my “Prediction Saturday” posts are to put forward bold predictions about the near future, e.g. 15 – 20 years from now. These tie into the sci-fi novella that I am writing, “2030 ET: Tribulation.” Today I make a bold prediction regarding the future of energy. The prediction is that over the next 20 years, the price of oil will crash as demand for oil will virtually be non-existent. The energy revolution will happen as we learn to efficiently exploit the only fusion reactor that matters, the Sun. Advancements in 3D printing, materials science, and bioengineering will drop the cost per kilowatt of solar and biofuel energy close to zero.

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Numbers

2030 ET Numerology

The reason I launched my “Race to 40!” challenge on May 25th instead of May 26th is that I specifically wanted 32 days to accomplish the challenge. It was important for me that the timeframe to achieve my goals should be thirty-two days and not thirty-one days or 1 month. Why “32”? What is the significance?

The significance has to do with numerology. A character in my 2030 ET story has a fascination with numbers. The character is Solomon Raind, the father of the protagonist, Arthur Raind.

The very unique property of the number “32” is that it is the sum of the first three primes to the power of themselves. Read the post to find out more about what this means according to Solomon Raind!

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Probability Robots will Take Your Job

Prediction: The Inevitability of Unconditional Basic Income

Today is the first of my “Prediction Saturday Series” posts. I intend to use these posts to put forward a prediction about the near future, e.g. 15 – 20 years from now.

My prediction for this week is the inevitability of an unconditional basic income; that is, that everyone will be paid a subsistence wage by the government irrespective of whether they work or not.

Tomorrow (June 5th, 2016), will be the first test of my prediction when the citizens of Switzerland will vote on providing an unconditional 2,500 Swiss Franks a month (about the same amount in US Dollars) to each of its citizens, regardless of work, wealth or their social contribution. Opinion polls suggest the referendum will be heavily defeated, and my prediction will not hold up at the first test. That is perfectly understandable as the conditions are not right for unconditional basic income as yet; but in 15 – 20 years’ time, they will be.

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